Search results for " contagio"
showing 10 items of 51 documents
A deterministic model for highly contagious diseases: The case of varicella
2016
[EN] The classic nonlinear Kermack-McKendrick model based upon a system of differential equations has been widely applied to model the rise and fall of global pandemic and also seasonal epidemic by introducing a forced harmonic infectivity which would change throughout the year. These methods work well in their respective domains of applicability, and for certain diseases, but they fail when both seasonality and high infectivity are combined. In this paper we consider a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered, or SIR, model with two latent states to model the propagation and evolutionary history of varicella in humans. We show that infectivity can be calculated from real data and we find a nonstanda…
Financial contagion through space-time point processes
2020
AbstractWe propose to study the dynamics of financial contagion by means of a class of point process models employed in the modeling of seismic contagion. The proposal extends network models, recently introduced to model financial contagion, in a space-time point process perspective. The extension helps to improve the assessment of credit risk of an institution, taking into account contagion spillover effects.
Ficciones inmunitarias. Sobre la lógica de la inmunidad en la cultura contemporánea
2018
This article develops the concept of “immunitarian fiction” taking as paradigmatic examples epidemics and zombie narratives, which share the idea of contagion as the main matrix of their narrative. The article tries to address the following question: in what way do these fictions, and other similar ones, participate in the imaginary of immunity and, at the same time, show some of their internal contradictions? For this, the text reflects on a set of cultural products of mass diffusion (novels, television series, cinematographic works). We analyze, in the first place, how these fictions highlight the fears and social anxieties linked to the tensions of the “immune paradigm” and represent the…
Early warning of systemic risk in global banking: eigen-pair R number for financial contagion and market price-based methods
2021
AbstractWe analyse systemic risk in the core global banking system using a new network-based spectral eigen-pair method, which treats network failure as a dynamical system stability problem. This is compared with market price-based Systemic Risk Indexes (SRIs), viz. Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES), Delta Conditional Value-at-Risk (Delta-CoVaR), and Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk (SRISK) in a cross-border setting. Unlike paradoxical market price based risk measures, which underestimate risk during periods of asset price booms, the eigen-pair method based on bilateral balance sheet data gives early-warning of instability in terms of the tipping point that is analogou…
Il ?diritto di visita? tra misure di contenimento del contagio e interesse dei figli
2020
The article analyzes how the pandemic emergency has triggered a series of limitations to the exercise of fundamental freedoms, thereby causing impairment to the ?visiting rights? of those parents who do not have custody of their children. In particular, considerable attention shall be paid to the legal cases. While striking a reasonable balance between the protection of the right to health and the preservation of the parentchild relationship, Courts have come up with a variety of solutions seeking to safeguard the child?s best interest
Tracciamento tecnologico del contagio.
2020
Lo scritto analizza il tema dell?impiego delle TIC nel tracciamento del contagio da COVID-19. L?introduzione di ?app? capaci di controllare l?epidemia suscita forti perplessità in relazione alla tutela della riservatezza. Lo studio ha lo scopo di avvalorare la tesi per la quale l?impiego delle tecnologie nella gestione dell?emergenza sanitaria non soltanto è lecito ma necessario al fine di assicurare un bilanciamento, guidato dai principi di adeguatezza, proporzionalità e ragionevolezza, tra valori fondamentali dell?ordinamento.
Emotion recognition, emotional awareness and cognitive bias in individuals with bulimia nervosa
2008
Difficulties recognizing emotion have been reported for eating disordered individuals in relation to perception of emotions in others and emotional self-awareness. It remains unclear whether this is a perceptual or cognitive-affective problem. Clarification is sought and the question of a cognitive bias is addressed when interpreting facially expressed emotions. Twenty participants with bulimia nervosa (BN) and 20 normal controls (NC) were assessed for ability to recognize emotional and neutral expressions. Emotional self-awareness was also assessed. Significant differences were found for emotional self-awareness. For emotional faces, only a poorer recognition of the emotion, surprise, for …
Interbrain emotional connection during music performances is driven by physical proximity and individual traits.
2021
How musical emotions and the pleasure derived from music, regardless of the musical valence, can be shared between individuals is a fascinating question, and investigating it can shed light on the function of musical reward. We carried out our investigations in a natural setting during an international competition for orchestra conductors. Participants (n = 15) used a dedicated smartphone app to report their subjective emotional experiences in real time while we recorded their cerebral activity using electroencephalography and their electrodermal activity. The overall behavioral real-time behavioral ratings suggest a possible social influence on the reported and felt pleasure. The physicall…
Contagion and Bank Runs in a Multi-Agent Financial System
2012
In this work we explore contagion from one institution to another that can stem from the existence of a network of financial contracts. In fact, in modern financial systems, an intricate web of claims and obligations links the balance sheets of a wide variety of intermediaries (banks, for instance) into a network structure of interdependencies that have created an environment for feedback elements to generate amplified responses to shocks to the financial system. Small shocks, which initially affect only a few institutions, can indeed spread by contagion to the rest of the financial sector and cause a crisis in the connected intermediaries. Whether the financial crisis does spread depends c…
Choosing Optimal Seed Nodes in Competitive Contagion.
2019
International audience; In recent years there has been a growing interest in simulating competitive markets to find out the efficient ways to advertise a product or spread an ideology. Along this line, we consider a binary competitive contagion process where two infections, A and B, interact with each other and diffuse simultaneously in a network. We investigate which is the best centrality measure to find out the seed nodes a company should adopt in the presence of rivals so that it can maximize its influence. These nodes can be used as the initial spreaders or advertisers by firms when two firms compete with each other. Each node is assigned a price tag to become an initial advertiser whi…